Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don offers a series draft bust candidates by position – he ends things with the pitchers.
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Consider Burnes more overrated than a “bust,” because this is what we’re talking about a pitcher in decline which often costs a top-15 pick thanks Gerrit Cole’s injury. Burnes has seen his K% drop and his BB% rise each of the last three seasons, easily posting the lowest CSW of his career last year. He will now be drafted as fantasy’s SP2 despite having a 4.02 SIERA that wasn’t among the top 20 starters last season. Additionally, Burnes will lose the league’s best defense after being traded to Baltimore; he had by far the lowest BABIP among starters last season, almost 40 points lower than his expected BABIP. He’ll also be playing in a much tougher division and in a new home park that will help stifle home runs but hurt on strikeouts. Milwaukee has increased Ks by 10% over the last three seasons.
Only five qualified SPs recorded a worse CSW than Bello’s 25.5% last season, while only six finished with a worse K-BB% than him (11.7) during the second half. Bello is a low-K pitcher and the projections call for a WHIP around 1.40, so it is highly suspicious that he has a higher ADP than Kyle Harrison.
Bibee’s 2.98 ERA wasn’t supported by his 4.19 SIERA last season, so he’ll need to take a big step forward to live up to his 2024 ADP; he’s drafted as a top-25 (!) fantasy starter in Yahoo leagues, ahead of too many intriguing weapons to list. Cleveland projects to have a bottom-five offense this season, so wins will be an issue even if Bibee avoids his projected ERA jump.
Verlander is a good enough pitcher to get by without his old stuff, but the abyss could come at age 41. He posted his worst K-BB% (14.8) since 2014 and was hit harder than ever last season. His K-rate dropped to 7.98 and Verlander’s CSW (25.9%) ranked 38th out of 44 qualified starters. Additionally, a shoulder injury will delay Verlander’s 2024 start until “at least early April.” It’s wild that he’s drafted as a top-35 SP.
There’s an argument that Kirby has a greater margin for error given his impeccable control, but there’s a counterargument that things could go wrong given his inability to miss bats when his walk speed drops; Kirby’s 2.5 BB% last season was the best by a starter since 2014. He’s being treated as a top-12 fantasy SP despite ranking 30th in K% and 29th in CSW last season. THE BAT projects an 8.1 K/9 with an ERA of 3.73. There’s a good chance Kirby ends up as Seattle’s third- or fourth-best starter in 2024.
Pepiot somehow managed a 2.14 ERA last season despite an 8.1 K/9 rating thanks to an almost unfathomable LOB percentage of 99.2 (Blake Snell led the league with a LOB of 86.7 %). Pepiot’s .189 BABIP was also 50+ points lower than MLB’s qualifying leader. As if that’s not enough alarm bells for a major decline, Pepiot’s BB% (3.1) has dropped dramatically from his career mark (10.0%). He now has to pitch in the AL East while becoming a full-time starter and without the support of LA.
Bassitt is a fine pitcher who is expected to post a modest K-rate (7.9) and an ERA in the low 4s. But fantasy managers seem to be taking into account that he won 16 games last year and drafted him in the first 10 rounds. Bassitt’s ADP (119.3) is ahead of Hunter Greene, Bailey Ober, Michael King, Chris Sale and Hunter Brown, all of whom I would prefer right away.
Gallen is a very good pitcher who is being drafted as an elite pitcher, thanks in part to his 2023 book. He threw the most pitches in a season last year since 2019 – and more than 200 more than any other pitcher. Fantasy managers may want to proceed cautiously, but he’s drafted as a top-10 starter. For what it’s worth, Gallen had a 4.03 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP after the All-Star break and finished last season with an average exit velocity in the bottom 3% of the league.
Morton could prove to be a nice source of wins anyway, but a closer look at 2023 shows a decline for the 40-year-old. His 3.64 ERA was accompanied by a 4.44 SIERA that ranked in the bottom 10 among all qualified starters. Morton’s CSW (30.7) was third highest, but his K-BB% plummeted to 10.7 in the second half, which is Jordan Lyles and Miles Mikolas territory.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Atlanta has multiple pitching prospects ready and waiting for an opportunity if age continues to catch up with Morton.
Díaz enters 2024 as Cincinnati’s closer with no clear alternative, but there are some red flags suggest he’s a bad fantasy pick while being drafted as a top-10 RP.
Gray finished as AL Cy Young runner-up last year, but his 2.79 ERA came with a SIERA of 3.95, as did he incredibly lucky when it came to giving up home runs. Gray reached 180 innings last season for the first time since 2015 in the final year of his contract and is Sidelined in the spring with a strained hamstringso he is also at an abnormally high risk of injury.
Wacha’s ERA of 3.22 came with a SIERA of 4.43 last season, when he also posted an ugly K-BB% (11.4) outside of Petco Park. Wacha is now moving to a favorable hitter location at Kauffman Stadium, and his predictions are not kind.
Bednar clearly enters the season at the top of the Pirates list, but Aroldis Chapman is now breathing down his neck after signing with Pittsburgh. Chapman’s elite fastball returned last season, when he posted a 2.95 SIERA (top-10) and the third-best K-BB% (26.9) among relievers. Meanwhile, Bednar’s K-BB% fell to 17.6 in the second half. And while he has been dealing with lat tightness all spring, it looks like he’s done for the seasonbut still – there are warning signs for the incumbent.
Lange’s 4.41 SIERA ranked 141st out of 162 qualified relievers last season, so it’s safe to ask if he’s Detroit’s answer to closing again in 2024. His 15.6 BB% was the second highest among RPs, and his K-BB% (7.8) was second. half of them were downright scary. Lange is a ratio risk and plays on a team projected to finish below .500, so he is a fantasy fade.