It’s been a fantastic baseball preseason at Yahoo Sports. We’ve ranked and we’ve mocked. We’ve given you sleepers, picks and pans, broken down the positions and offered a long-form strategy.
Today’s goal is a little different. Fast hitters. Cliff Notes. Imagine if you and I ran into each other at the airport or at the local market and you only had a few minutes for some last-second tips. Here are the things I would probably share with you before we parted ways, my 24 best swing thoughts for fantasy baseball 2024.
Let’s go. I don’t want you to miss that flight, or miss out on your glorious run to a championship.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2024 MLB season]
1) Injury optimism is not your friend, especially when it comes to pitchers who were injured (or re-injured) in the spring.
Unless the discount is huge on these players, I won’t draft them. Gerrit Cole is the most obvious name that applies here.
2) The AL Central is a division filled with soft, cushiony landings. The Twins are the nominal favorite, but it’s a roster filled with notoriously brittle players. Everyone else in the division would love just to climb above .500. While divisional matchups don’t dominate the schedule like they used to, I want pitchers in this easy division. I will also attack the AL Central with streaming decisions during the season.
3) In most Salary Cap designs for mixed leagues, I tend to lean toward a stars-and-scrubs approach for two reasons. It is clear that the top of my roster will be filled with top talent. But the second aspect is that I want the bottom 15% of my roster to be fluid, a group that I can easily drop out of as new players emerge. The most important free-agent portion of any fantasy season is the early weeks.
4) There are no real cheat codes when it comes to fantasy baseball picks – your roster requires too many players for anyone to wear the tag of a league winner. But the best cheat code strategy I have is sharing a team with a trusted friend. This works best if the tandem has a similar commitment level and view of the MLB landscape, but if the tandem is a good fit, you have significantly improved your chances of winning. You also have someone to share the journey with, and someone to share the work with.
5) The six offenses I’m most interested in investing in: Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Rangers and Orioles. The five I most want to avoid: White Sox, Athletics, Royals (Bobby Witt Jr. obviously an exception), Marlins and (unfortunately) the Rockies. And please stop drafting Kris Bryant. The cheese is spoiled.
6) Cleveland’s offense will probably be slightly below average, but I’m scared to draft José Ramírez at ADP. Your early picks should excite you, and your early picks should be tied to plus offenses. (Witt is again an exception, as he doesn’t need teammates to help when he racks up stolen bases.)
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
7) You can wait for the catcher even if your league requires two starters. Let that position come to you. I’d love to see what a healthy Mitch Garver could do with a full season of at-bats; he’ll be eligible to play catcher, but will primarily be DHing, and maybe batting cleanup.
8) You can be patient with closers, even though most mixed-league teams want at least two solid guys. I prefer to let the top-tier prospects go and then think about relievers in the 5-12 range who can move up a level. Camilo Doval and Jordan Romano fit this idea nicely.
9) George Kirby is the main target, but I like all five members of Seattle’s starting rotation. The run-suppressing ballpark doesn’t hurt either. Yes please.
10) Batting average and runs scored are generally the two most underrated offensive categories. I want all my mixed-league teams to be dynamic in runs scored, which probably means I’ve landed some high-slotted hitters (and OBP sources) in quality lineups.
11) Name recognition alone keeps Mike Trout in ADP’s top 50. He is no longer a runner, his batting average continues to decline and we have to assume that he will miss at least a month of playing time. Trout hit fastballs in the zone; now they are his swing-and-miss pitch. The setup around Trout is also a problem.
12) Sometimes Trea Turner sneaks into the second round, and it’s a snap. The slow start to last year made sense, given the move and the big contract. He was back with his overlord, later in the play. I also want some Bryce Harper stock before my draft season is over.
13) Sometimes Marcus Semien sneaks into the third round, and that’s a piece of cake. Some may consider Semien’s remarkable log of games played a fluke, but that misses the point. Sure, Semien has been lucky not to suffer a nasty injury, but his record over the entire season reflects how well he takes care of his body, prepares for the schedule and wants to play every game possible. The 162 drum beats on his stats page are a feature and not a bug.
14) Aaron Nola is probably a little too much at the plate for his own good, and the Phillies’ outfield defense generally worries me. I haven’t thought about him once all draft season.
15) Logan Webb is the most underrated pitcher in the National League. His strikeout rate is normal, but is mitigated by his microscopic walk rate; The K/BB ratio is still the purest pitcher metric we have. Webb doesn’t have a lightning fastball, but with his groundball tilt that doesn’t matter. The Giants will provide even better defensive support this year with the addition of third base wizard Matt Chapman. And you can say that heating Webb in the 91-92 range makes him less likely to break down, putting less stress on his body. Add to that the generous size of the home court and I want as much Webb stock as I can get.
16) Plausible upside is what your late pitching choices are all about; it’s the wrong time to target older pitchers who are more defined by their floor. Brandon Pfaadt made it into the top 200, but I still want you to circle him; Last year he had it all figured out and was excellent in the play-offs. He has outbreak written all over his face.
17) There’s nothing hidden about Tarik Skubal (his 2023 finish was too electric), and there’s helium baked into that top-50 ADP. I’m generally allergic to this kind of buzz, but he’s the type of pitcher I’m willing to spend some extra money for.
18) Whenever possible, I like to draft attacking players with broad skill sets, guys who are good at different things, even if they don’t really excel in any one column. Selecting a specialist in the middle of the design can put you in a corner later. Bill James tried to tell us so long ago: subtle versatility is often underrated, and specialists are often overrated.
19) Platoons suffocate the value of every hitter in the mixed-league. Jarred Kelenic’s fantasy value took a dip when the Braves added Adam Duvall a week ago. And even if Kelenic plays, he’ll likely be in the bottom third of the order. Right now he looks like Atlanta’s number nine.
20) Don’t watch your shutters live, this will only increase your blood pressure. I don’t care who it is or how many saves in a row they’ve converted.
21) While I want to build an offensive base early (I don’t even look at a pitcher for the first 2-3 rounds), I accept that after about 15 rounds I should have four or five pitchers. I’ve seen experienced managers make extreme draft strategies work, and you know your setup better than I do – maybe you can throw a knuckleball at your room and get away with it. But I would advise most managers to consider something more balanced. And if I’m one of the last teams to grab my SP1, I’ll probably try to be early for my SP2.
22) If you’re in the middle of a Yahoo draft and aren’t sure who to select, open another window and look at the Free-agent tab on the commissioner’s main page. You can sort by roster percentage and get a good suggestion of ‘wisdom of crowds’.
23) Whatever your draft plan is, sketch it in pencil. Allow yourself to be flexible in the journey, ready to take advantage of all the surprising nuances and values that come your way. A rigid plan is a bad plan.
24) Listen to everyone you respect, but make your own decisions. Measure several times, cut once.