Stefon Diggs traded to Houston Texans: Fantasy football impact

During his introductory press conference with the Bears, Keenan Allen revealed that the Houston Texans were one of the teams close to acquiring his services when the Chargers shopped him. That indicated the Texans were interested in adding a wide receiver, but not only each warm body to fill in the depth chart; they were looking for an experienced, high-level needle mover for the position.

They found a fit with now-former Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs and were able to seal the deal with a second-round pick in 2025.

Texans trade 2025 second-round pick for Stefon Diggs, 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-round pick

Stefon Diggs and the Bills had a remarkable journey together. His arrival coincided with a pivotal period in which Josh Allen emerged as one of the NFL’s most formidable quarterbacks. The synergy of the dynamic duo was undeniable. Allen helped make it clear to everyone that Diggs had been performing at the No. 1 major league level for years. However, in recent months it became clear that this successful partnership was nearing its end for one reason or another.

Buffalo has a pair of quality wide receivers in Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir at the top of the depth chart and a Round 1 tight end selection from last year in Dalton Kincaid. They aren’t completely devoid of options around Allen, but if they weren’t already, Wide Receiver is at the top of the organization’s needs as April’s NFL Draft looms.

In a deep class of X receivers, they can hold on in the late first round and find their next WR1. On the other hand, while it may be nothing more than fan fiction, don’t rule out an aggressive move up the draft board to secure Allen’s next target.

The Bills offense will miss Diggs unless the team can acquire a ready-made difference maker in the draft – not an impossible ask this year. But no one should worry about Allen’s production or output. He is a proven player and can make it work with the room as it is currently built, plus a rookie added to the mix.

The Texas side of this trade is far more interesting and offers a more challenging projection on paper. Adding Diggs gives Houston what has to be considered one of the best wide receiver rooms in the NFL. It also gives us a bit of target pressure.

Who will have the best fantasy prospect among Houston’s trio of receivers?

Tank Dell and Nico Collins were a revealing duo last season, achieving an almost identical goal share in full matches together and producing at similar levels in two different roles.

Dell was an instant success as a rookie because he could beat man coverage and win on high-difficulty downfield routes.

However, we must not forget that he suffered a serious injury at the end of the season. You know this should be on the Texans’ minds as they were looking for high-level receiver help this offseason. When healthy, Dell offers Texans flexibility inside and out and will carry a big aDOT, even if his target numbers are modest.

In my opinion, Collins is on the superstar trajectory as an X receiver. He had a statistical breakout season last year, but don’t be fooled: His film was great the first two seasons of his career, and Reception Perception showed him shining in his own right long before the arrival of CJ Stroud. Collins plays a crucial role in this offense as the X who runs breaking routes. He and Stroud had an immediate bond and it should continue to blossom.

Now enter Diggs, who may be a slightly diminished deep game player but is still a fantastic separator and quality receiver. He won’t target nearly the same 161 season average as he did in Buffalo as a member of Houston’s receiver room, but he also won’t go nearly as high in ADP in fantasy football. Diggs will give Stroud a clear layup target and allow all of these receivers to move around and operate in different roles. His addition is a clear net positive for the efficiency prospects of the entire Houston offense.

As for Diggs’ individual prospects, one of the biggest variables of his projection in the event of a trade was that wherever he went, he would almost certainly experience a quarterback downgrade. The Texans are one of the few teams where you can reasonably argue that the drop-off might not exist.

I’m not saying CJ Stroud is a better quarterback than Josh Allen right now. However, every piece of evidence from his rookie season showed he has the ability to join the elite ranks. The pinpoint-accurate Stroud threatened every blade of grass on the field in Year 1 while demonstrating quality pre- and post-snap processing. He ranked 12th in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks last season while running a major NFL offense as a rookie. The sky is the limit for this player.

The Texans are officially a fanciful ‘right answer’

Every season there are at least one or two fouls that produce multiple correct answers in fantasy football. A type of unity that makes debates about the target tree seem irrelevant and produces multiple ‘ADP winners’. For a team to run such an offense, they must have a quality first- or second-level quarterback, a sharp offensive play-caller, a good overall ecosystem with an offensive line, and multiple dangerous receiving threats. All available data points to Houston possessing all of these variables. You don’t even have to squint to see it.

Before this Stefon Diggs trade, it was easy to get excited about the Texans. Now their chances of becoming the right offense seem impossibly high. I will be heavily involved in passing on several Houston Texans players at cost when the ADP dust settles in the summer.