Every year, without fail, we are forced to rewrite some of the previously inviolable laws of fantasy football.
If you’ve been building and managing teams for a decade or more, you already understand how quickly and dramatically our guiding principles can change. The NFL itself has changed significantly during the fantasy era, taking our game-within-a-game with it.
Today it’s our job to discuss the five essential lessons of the 2023 season, the first of which turns fantasy dogma on its head in a traditionally cluttered roster spot…
Young tight ends are blossoming
It used to be that everyone generally accepted the idea that first- and second-year tight ends were unlikely to generate any serious fantasy. The learning curve for young tight ends was too great. It was a developmental position for several seasons. In many cases, the tight ends didn’t break out until year three (Ben Coates), or four (Shannon Sharpe) or five (Dallas Clark). Jared Cook didn’t reach the top 10 at his position until he reached the top 10 10th pro season.
However, in 2023, the leading scorer among all tight ends was 22-year-old Sam LaPorta.
He was one of two rookies to finish in the top twelve at the position (Dalton Kincaid was the other). Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson, a pair of second-year players, ranked TE8 and TE9 respectively. Isaiah He was probably the TE2 of the game for the past five weeks, even in his second season.
It’s not like the veterans in this place abandoned us either. Evan Engram, Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished second, third and fifth in the final score. We have simply arrived at a moment where tight ends of all ages and experience levels are booming.
Next summer, as we debate LaPorta versus McBride as the overall TE1, we’ll also have to grapple with the Brock Bowers dilemma – because rookies at the position no longer feel like such a trap.
Injury-sensitive is a concept that we can just launch into the sun
This really is the Rasputin of bad fantasy ideas. He is shot, battered, poisoned, stabbed and drowned in the river, but inevitably returns to bond with a new collection of players.
It’s an outright lie. Eliminate it from your process.
If you entered your 2023 draft and were determined to avoid even the healthy players who were at some point given an injury-prone red flag, then you fooled yourself by passing on both Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert. Those two were, of course, game-changers in fantasy; they almost single-handedly carried teams to the postseason. McCaffrey was selected by 23.5% of Yahoo League winners.
Many of you have also tried to limit your risk of injury by steering away from Tua Tagovailoa, the man who led the league in passing yards. And you rolled your eyes when you saw Matthew Stafford’s name among the featured weekly waiver ads. And you probably weren’t interested in drafting Lamar Jackson, who is now on his way to his second MVP.
So, um…great job, everyone. An absolute triumph of injury prevention. And speaking of this general topic…
Dual-threat quarterbacks crushed again
Somewhere in the distant past, some old football fanatic declared that mobile quarterbacks were doomed to short careers and high injury rates, and…well, that was that. It became a widely accepted truth about life in the NFL. Rushing quarterbacks were fun, but they had a short shelf life.
The only problem with this idea is that it was never actually supported by evidence or data. It’s just something that was said repeatedly until it was believed. Yes, we can all name specific rushing QBs who have suffered injuries during their careers, but that’s just the nature of the sport. The game itself is prone to injuries. Over time, almost everyone gets hurt. Plenty of analysts have examined the injury rates of mobile QBs and found no reason to avoid them in fantasy or put them in a separate risk category.
Let the record show that in 2023 (as in 2022), the quarterbacks who finished atop the fantasy scoring leaderboard all derived a significant percentage of their value from rushing stats. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were at first and second, while Jackson was the QB4. Those three combined for just one missed game this season, and that was tied to the Ravens sitting Lamar in Week 18 after gaining home field advantage in the AFC. All things considered, the dual-threat QBs had a pretty good year.
We should also note that some of the season’s major injuries affected prototypical pocket passers: Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, et al. The lack of rushing attempts didn’t make them any less vulnerable to injury.
Bottom line: If you avoided dual-threat quarterbacks because of perceived reliability and health concerns, you could only avoid positives.
However, if you chased upwards in KC, you came away a little disappointed…
Apparently there are limits to Patrick Mahomes’ wizardry
By any reasonable standard for quarterback performance, Mahomes is having a great season: 4,183 yards, 27 TDs, 10 wins, Pro Bowl, 67.2 completion percentage. It was a very solid year that would fit perfectly into the career stats of, say, Carson Palmer or Matt Schaub.
But the people reaching for Mahomes in the second round of fantasy drafts were clearly looking for something more than a Schaubian statistic. Ultimately, Mahomes was a regrettable pick at his ADP in 2023 because he didn’t seriously challenge for QB1 status.
Of course, it’s difficult to pin the blame specifically on him. His receivers were mostly terrible. Just take a look at the passer rating-when-targeted of this sketchy collection of Chiefs wideouts:
It’s fair to say that the worst play in the NFL in 2023 was a pass to Skyy Moore – and the the second-worst play was a pass to Toney. It’s almost inconceivable that a receiver associated with Mahomes could finish a season at that level, yet here we are. The four players above saw a total of 171 goals last season, most of which were clearly lost.
Kelce remained effective at age 34 despite limping much of the season, and developmental rookie Rashee Rice exceeded virtually all expectations. But this team’s failure to acquire an affordable No. 1 receiver has finally put a dent in Mahomes’ fantasy profile. He’s clearly still as inventive and talented as ever, but there’s only so much he can do with a corps that hosts rogue galleries.
Before we reflexively slot Mahomes into the top tier of QB in 2024, it would be fun to see KC shop the free-agent market this spring.
In 2023, the best way to spend your FAB was to burn it immediately
Some of you traditionally prefer to keep your FAB powder dry until December so that you can get an exemption to play in the fantasy playoffs if you choose. And of course, there’s no doubt you’ve had some notable hits over the years. If Jerome Harrison’s legendary three-game binge led you to a title in 2009, you’ll probably never reach the final weeks without a few dollars left in the strategic reserve.
But this season – as is often the case – the essential exemption collections were made in early September. Everything you needed to win your 2023 fantasy league was available on the thread going into Week 2. That’s the week we added Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Cleveland’s defense and several other delights. It was a fantasy gold mine. Williams and Nacua were legitimate league winners.
As a general rule (applicable to any fantasy game), the additions you make at the beginning of a season are by far the most valuable, as they will benefit you throughout the year. The best time to get aggressive with your FAB is immediately, at the first hint of someone’s outbreak. The next best time is the following week. If you want to save a fake dollar or two for the end game, that’s fine. But no one who emptied the wallet for Williams or Nacua regretted that decision in Championship Week.